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Is the Next Crypto Market Crash Coming? How Japan’s Economic Shifts Might Impact Bitcoin

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The cryptocurrency industry, led by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), has been attempting to recover from the recent global market crash. The rising correlation divergence between major stock indexes and Bitcoin has increased fear of further crypto capitulation.  

While Bitcoin price has hovered around $58k in the past 24 hours, Japan’s NIKKEI 225 Index jumped nearly 4 percent on Friday. 

Trouble Looming From Japan

According to most researchers, the recent global market crash emanated from Japan’s sudden rise in interest rates after nearly two decades of retaining them in the negative zone. The Japanese government has kept its interest rates below zero for around 17 years to stimulate its economy.

However, the notable rise in global inflation has compelled the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to increase its interest rates twice this year, although they remain relatively low compared to their peers.

Carry Trade Re-emergence

As the Japanese Yen weakened over 5 percent in the past week, analysts have warned that there has been a significant spike in carry trades, alternatively known as currency hedging. 

“Global central banks are now shifting toward easing, barring the BOJ, which will keep rates low relative to peers. That means the carry trade is poised to return, provided equity markets and the Chinese currency remain stable,” Mary Nicola, Markets Live Strategist, noted.

Notably, traders are waiting for BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech before the parliament on August 23, which will coincide with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s talk at Jackson Hole.

Suppose Ueda sounds dovish while Powell appears hawkish in terms of the economic outlook. In that case, the differences between the US and Japan’s interest rates will remain elevated, thus attracting more investors to enter carry trades.

Impact on Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin price has been trapped in a falling trend since March this year despite institutional investors’ notable spike in demand. 

However, a possible market crash triggered by the ballooning carry trades could highly impact the entire crypto industry. Nonetheless, the anticipated interest rate cuts in the United States are a recipe for a major crypto-bullish uproar at the end of this year.



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South Korea’s national pension fund buys $34M of MicroStrategy shares – CoinJournal

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The National Pension Service, South Korea’s national pension fund, has reported purchases of nearly $34 million in MicroStrategy shares.

NPS is South Korea’s largest public pension fund and the third-largest in the world with over $729 billion worth of assets.

Wu Blockchain shared the news via X:

Details filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission indicate the NPS acquired 245,500 of MicroStrategy shares at a total of $33.5 million. The filing relates to the fund’s investments in the quarter ending June 30, 2024.

According to news outlet Infomax, the National Pension Service’s investment in shares of the US-based MicroStrategy accounts for 0.04% of the fund’s total investment in US stocks.

Apart from MSTR, the fund also holds more than $51 million in Coinbase shares, $31.5 million in Roblox and over $61 million in shares of Block, Inc. The fund also holds shares of AI-chip powerhouse Nvidia, and tech giants Google and Microsoft.

MicroStrategy shares up 92% YTD

While the MicroStrategy stock has plummeted 20% as the crypto market struggles with choppy conditions. Despite falling from highs of $180 in mid-July to currently around $131, MSTR remains more than 92% up year-to-date.

MicroStrategy, as well as top crypto related companies such as Coinbase, are largely bullish amid growth and projections for Bitcoin. For Michael Saylor-led MicroStrategy, part of the success has come after adopting the strategy of adding BTC to its balance sheet.

MSTR has soared alongside Bitcoin since MicroStrategy first bought BTC in 2020, the latest surge coming amid Bitcoin’s push to reclaim $60k.

Saylor said in a recent post on X that MSTR has outperformed 499 of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500.

The company acquired an additional 12,222 BTC in Q2, 2024, adding more than $805 million in BTC to its haul. Currently, MicroStrategy holds 226,500 BTC worth over $13 billion.





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Trump holds around $5 million in Ethereum, nets $7 million from NFT ventures

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Former President Donald Trump disclosed owning up to $5 million in Ethereum and reported earnings exceeding $7 million from his non-fungible token (NFT) ventures, according to his financial disclosures from the Citizens for Ethics group.

According to the document, Trump holds Ethereum-based assets valued between $1 million and $5 million in a cold wallet. However, available data from blockchain analytical platform Arkham Intelligence shows that Trump’s wallet contains approximately $3.6 million in crypto, including $1.29 million in ETH and $989,000 in wrapped ETH.

Additionally, Trump reported earning $7.15 million in licensing fees from NFT INT LLC for his NFT collections, which include the “Mugshot” edition and two series of Donald Trump Trading Cards.

NFT INT sells the cards and uses Trump’s name and likeness under a licensing agreement with CIC Digital.

Pro-Bitcoin

Trump’s evolving stance on digital assets marks a significant shift from his previous skepticism towards the crypto industry. The Republican presidential candidate, once a critic of the industry, has now embraced them as a key focus in the upcoming November elections.

As part of his re-election campaign, Trump has pledged to build a national Bitcoin reserve and position the US as the leader of the sector through pro-crypto policies that would help the sector to thrive.

Crypto asset management firm CoinShares pointed out that Trump’s potential second term could greatly influence Bitcoin.

According to the firm, Trump’s protectionist policies and inflationary trade strategies might undermine geopolitical stability and the US dollar’s status as a reserve currency, potentially boosting Bitcoin as a hedge. However, a stronger dollar, often linked to Trump’s fiscal conservatism, could negatively affect Bitcoin prices.

Nevertheless, the firm believes his presidency would foster a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets because of his pro-crypto stance and his choice of J.D. Vance, a staunch Bitcoin supporter, as his running mate.

CoinShares concluded:

“Overall, Trump’s presidency could create a mixed but potentially advantageous landscape for Bitcoin.”

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Poodlana token sale nears $8M ahead of Raydium listing

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Crypto price predictions Raydium (RAY), LayerZero (ZRO), Poodlana (POODL)

Poodlana, the fast-growing Solana meme coin, is set to list on Raydium, on Friday after running one of the most successful token sales of the year. 

Poodlana token listing is nearing

With four hours to go, the developers have raised over $7.9 million from investors, a figure that could top $8 million.

Poodlana, unlike other cryptocurrencies that spend months before listing in exchanges, will start trading almost immediately after the sale ends. Precisely, it will start trading on Raydium, just one hour after that. 

Raydium has grown into the most popular Solana DEX. Data by DeFi Llama shows that the network has over $910 million assets in the ecosystem. At the same time, it has handled over $2.7 billion worth of transactions in the last 7 day and is continuing to gain market share. 

Raydium is not the only exchange that is expected to list Poodlana. MEXC, one of the biggest crypto exchanges in the world, has pledged to list the token on August 19th while the developers have hinted that a major tier 1 exchange – most likely Binance or OKX – will list it on August 23rd.

Listing the Poodlana token is just the beginning of what is expected to be a long journey to make the POODL token one of the biggest meme coins in the world. After its launch, the developers will continue marketing the token in a bid to make it the most popular asset in crypto. 

The next phase will involve building the ecosystem, such as introducing staking, where users can earn returns. They will also launch more airdrops and bonuses to reward long-term holders. 

The ecosystem growth is important in the meme coin industry, which is often short-term. Just this year, many meme coins like MOTHER, DADDY, and WATER surged, attracted buyers, and have now imploded.

Poodlana’s appeal

Poodlana hopes to change the short-term nature of meme coins. As part of its appeal, the developers have named it after Poodle, a highly popular Japanese dog that often sells for more money than other brands like Shiba Inu and Floki.

At the same time, it is a luxury brand that sees itself as Hermes, the most popular brand among the elite. While most luxury brand stocks like Kering and Burberry have slumped, Hermes stock has risen to the highest point on record.

There are other reasons to be bullish on Poodlana now that cryptocurrencies are retreating and the sentiment has waned. In a statement, Miles Deutscher, a popular crypto analyst, hinted that this boring phase could be a form of accumulation and that cryptocurrencies could bounce back soon.

The main catalyst for these coins will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the end of the summer season, and the end of the American election. You can buy the POODL token here.





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South Korea's Pension Fund Snaps Up Nearly $34M MicroStrategy Shares

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South Korean pension fund, National Pension Service (NPS), has bought MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares worth nearly $34 million in the second quarter of this year, according to filings made public earlier this week.



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Donald Trump raked in over $7M from NFTs, new disclosure shows

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Former president Donald Trump disclosed that he owns up to $5 million in crypto and has earned over $7 million from his three NFT collections.



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WazirX reports $230M hack to police and cyber unit, implements recovery efforts

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Key Takeaways

  • WazirX has collaborated with relevant authorities to trace the attackers following a $230 million hack.
  • The exchange is working on recovering stolen funds with help from other exchanges.

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WazirX has filed a police complaint and is pursuing additional legal actions in response to a recent cyberattack that resulted in over $230 million loss, said the exchange in a Friday statement. Its immediate plans include “tracing the stolen funds, recovering customer assets, and conducting a deeper analysis of the cyberattack.”

WazirX has reported the incident to the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU-India) and the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-IN). The firm has also cooperated with over 500 exchanges to block the involved addresses.

“Many exchanges are cooperating with us, and we are actively working with them on additional resources to aid our recovery efforts,” the WazirX team stated.

WazirX is actively working with forensic experts and law enforcement agencies to identify the attackers and is focusing on fund recovery and forensic analysis post-hack, the firm noted.

On Thursday, WazirX said it was hit by a cyberattack, resulting in the theft of over $230 million from one of its multisig wallets. The hack prompted the exchange to halt all INR and crypto withdrawals as a precautionary measure.

The firm stated that the attackers exploited a discrepancy between the data displayed on the wallet interface and the actual transaction details, which allowed them to siphon off the funds.

Following the attack, Shiba Inu’s SHIB token plummeted by 8%. At the time, the attackers’ wallet held around $100 million worth of SHIB; they swapped several altcoins for Ethereum (ETH).

The wallet currently holds 43,800 ETH, valued at around $153 million, Arkham Intelligence’s data shows.

According to blockchain analysis firm Elliptic, the cyberattack on WazirX was potentially linked to North Korean hackers.

A wake-up call for crypto regulation in India

The WazirX hack has exposed India’s crypto regulatory gap, according to Joanna Cheng, Fireblocks’ Associate General Counsel. Cheng called for clear guidelines on security standards, risk management, and consumer protection.

“There is no crypto-specific regulation in India so far, and the industry would benefit from clear regulatory expectations on issues like security standards, risk management, and consumer protection. Regulatory intervention in this space would also mean that exchanges that service large numbers of retail customers are held accountable for their actions (or inaction),” Cheng told Crypto Briefing.

Commenting on WazirX’s statement that the incident was “a force majeure event” that was beyond its control, Cheng pointed out that for the force majeure clause to be effective, the event, here the cyberattack, must be truly unexpected and unavoidable. If it can be shown that WazirX could have reasonably prevented or mitigated the attack, the clause might not apply.

“In the case of WazirX, the usage of the force majeure clause likely allows the exchange to halt withdrawals. However, if it is found that the event is in fact foreseeable and could have been avoided or mitigated through reasonable measures, the clause cannot be invoked,” Cheng noted.

“We believe that this incident highlights the importance of regulatory clarity and oversight, in order to establish a base level of accountability and investor protection,” she added.

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Bitcoin sees record growth in long-term holder supply 

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The supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has increased significantly in the past month, now undoubtedly reversing the declining trend that’s been dominant since the beginning of the year. Long-term holder supply is a very useful metric for understanding the sentiment of a more sophisticated part of the market, as it reflects the behavior of investors who are less likely to sell their holdings in response to short-term price fluctuations.

Between Jul. 18 and Aug. 14, the long-term holder supply grew from 13,538,543 to 13,823,283 million BTC, representing a substantial increase of 284,740 BTC. While this growth is noteworthy in itself, it becomes even more significant as it comes after a period of considerable decline in LTH supply earlier in the year.

long-term holder supply 18 july 14 aug
Graph showing the total Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders from July 18 to Aug. 14, 2024 (Source: Glassnode)

The trend reversal began on May 4 and continued for two months, after which a brief two-week decrease in LTH supply correlated with Bitcoin’s price increase.

Tracking LTH supply is important because it provides valuable insights into potential future price movements. Long-term holders are typically considered more committed investors who are less likely to sell their Bitcoin in response to short-term price fluctuations. As a result, an increase in LTH supply generally indicates a reduction in the amount of Bitcoin available for trading, potentially leading to decreased market volatility and increased price stability.

long-term holder supply net position change
Chart showing the 30-day change in the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders from Jan. 1 to Aug. 14, 2024 (Source: Glassnode)

The recent surge in LTH supply, particularly the largest 30-day change recorded on Aug. 14 with 246,196 BTC added, is a significant development that warrants further analysis. This increase shows growing confidence among investors, who choose to hold onto their Bitcoin for longer periods despite price volatility.

One reason behind this rise in LTH supply could be the maturation of BTC held by spot ETFs. The methodology for calculating LTH supply considers Bitcoin that has not moved for 155 days or more as part of the long-term holder supply. Given that US Bitcoin spot ETF balances have increased from 651,641 BTC on Jan.16 to 879,799 BTC on Aug. 14,  a significant portion of these holdings would now have crossed the 155-day threshold, contributing to the increase in LTH supply.

spot bitcoin etf balance ytd
Graph showing the balances of the top 10 US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 (Source: Glassnode)

This explanation aligns with the timing of the increase, as many of the ETF inflows from earlier in the year would have just reached the 155-day mark. The substantial growth in ETF holdings, amounting to approximately 228,158 BTC since the beginning of the year, closely matches the increase in LTH supply.

This suggests institutional investors are adopting a long-term investment strategy for Bitcoin through spot ETFs. The market seems to see this as a vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future in the TradFi market, which could encourage other large investors to follow suit.

Furthermore, the increase in LTH supply could potentially lead to a supply squeeze in the market. If more BTC is held by long-term investors and ETFs, both of which are less likely to sell quickly and aggressively, the amount available for active trading decreases. If this reduction in circulating supply continues, it could, in theory, lead to increased price pressure when we see another rally.

The resilience shown by long-term holders in the face of recent price decreases is also worth mentioning. Despite Bitcoin’s price drop, the LTH balance has increased significantly. This suggests that long-term holders and institutional investors, through ETFs, maintain their positions, potentially viewing the current market conditions as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to sell. However, it will take another three or so months before any assets bought during this price dip mature to be considered long-term holder supply and be reflected in on-chain metrics.

The post Bitcoin sees record growth in long-term holder supply  appeared first on CryptoSlate.



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Whale buys nearly $13M of Ether, but price needs to reclaim $2.7K for next leg up

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The last time this whale address bought the dip was just before Ether rose from $2,100 to $3,100.



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