2024 has been a banner year for bitcoin, and this weekend on Reddit, the crypto community dove into a lively debate about the leading digital currency’s cycles. Bitcoin enthusiasts pondered whether the classic four-year halving cycle could lose its forecasting mojo. From Predictable Pasts to Revolutionary Futures Although bitcoin has ridden through numerous rollercoasters of […]
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Hyperbitcoinization and Supercycle Hype Heats Up: Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead? – Featured Bitcoin News
U.S. Debt Ceiling Looms in Signal for Bottom in Bitcoin (BTC) Price Cycle
The U.S. is likely to hit the maximum it’s legally allowed to borrow at some point between Jan. 14 and Jan. 23, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a Friday letter to the speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson. After that, the Treasury will take “extraordinary measures” to cut borrowing.
“I respectfully urge Congress to act to protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” she wrote. In June 2023, Congress suspended the debt limit until Jan. 1, 2025.
Risk assets weakened into the market close, just before the letter was publicized. U.S. equities fell, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average all losing about 1%. Bitcoin dropped as much as 4% from its intraday high.
Raising the debt ceiling has historically been a negative signal for the largest cryptocurrency, which has dropped or underperformed during the following days on the past five occasions.
This December has not been a strong month for bitcoin, which is down 3% and on track for its first red month since August.
To add to the political and economic uncertainty, President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration will occur on Jan. 20, between the dates Yellen highlighted.
According to Zerohedge, Congress first established a debt limit of $45 billion back in 1939 and has raised it 103 times as government spending continues to outpace tax receipts. The U.S. national debt is now over $36.2 trillion.
Another influence on the bitcoin price is its parallel to previous cycles. Since the cycle low that occurred during the FTX collapse in November 2022, BTC has been aligned with the previous two cycles.
It is now just shy of a 500% return, similar to the two previous cycles at the same point in the cycle. That’s not a good sign for the bulls.
The 2018-2022 and 2015-2018 cycles both saw significant drawdowns at this point in the cycle, highlighted by the red box in the chart below. It’s just possible Trump’s inauguration date of Jan. 20 could signal a bottom for bitcoin.
Grayscale adds AI launchpads, Solana DeFi apps to Q1 2025 top tokens
The asset manager has added tokens including HYPE, VIRTUAL, ENA and JITO to its list of the top 20 tokens to watch.
Bitcoin Boom Goes Mainstream—Blackrock’s IBIT Becomes the Fastest Growing ETF of All Time – Finance Bitcoin News
On Monday, Bloomberg spotlighted Blackrock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, as the “greatest launch” in exchange-traded fund (ETF) history. Bitcoin Takes Center Stage as Blackrock’s IBIT Breaks Records Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, reached an all-time peak of $11.5 trillion in assets under management by the end of Q3 2024, thanks to significant net […]
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Solana shines amid record-breaking DEX trading volumes in December
DEXs registered new monthly trading volume records in December on spot and derivatives markets, with Solana-based protocols dominating the sector, according to DefiLlama.
As of Dec. 30, on-chain spot trading volumes reached $451.5 billion, a 19% increase from November, which held the previous record of monthly trading volume at $379.5 billion.
Meanwhile, on-chain derivatives moved $325.3 billion in the same period, a 25% monthly increase and over $10 billion over the previous all-time high registered in March.
Solana maintained its dominance in spot volumes for the third consecutive month, registering nearly $112 billion. This is $15 billion more than Binance Smart Chain (BSC), the second-most used chain for spot trading, with a total volume of $96.2 billion. This is a 166% increase from last month.
Ethereum was the third most used blockchain by spot market traders, with a monthly volume of $86.6 billion, a 21.5% increase from November.
Despite keeping the lead on the spot market, Solana lost ground to BSC and Ethereum, as its volumes slid 15.7% this month.
Traders rotating liquidity in search of new crypto narratives could be the reason behind Solana’s decrease in spot trading volume. The chain peaked at $132.3 billion last month, the absolute all-time high for on-chain spot trading, so a slight decline in trading volume is expected.
Rise of on-chain derivatives
The trading of derivatives on-chain has grown particularly this year. In 2023, these DEXs registered roughly $73 billion in transactions. In comparison, the lowest monthly trading volume for on-chain derivatives this year was $138.3 billion in October.
Like Solana’s spot market dominance, Hyperliquid has held the crown on the on-chain derivatives trading market for the fourth consecutive month.
The application-specific blockchain registered steady growth in volume, peaking at $152.4 billion on Dec. 30. This volume is 101% larger than the amount registered last month.
In addition to Hyperliquid’s stellar performance in the on-chain derivatives trading, Solana has kept second place since October.
Although Solana’s derivatives trading volume has dropped 21% since November, it still registered $34.1 billion in monthly trading volume as of Dec. 30.
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BlackRock’s IBIT ETF Breaks Records as Fastest-Growing Crypto Fund: Bloomberg
Bloomberg in its latest report has spotlighted BlackRock ETF’s records which has smashed industry records in its launch year itself. It noted that no ETF has ever had such an exceptional debut as it grew to a behemoth with more than $50 billion in assets in less than a year which makes it the fastest-growing cryptocurrency ETF in history.
IBIT’s size grew to match the combined assets of over 50 long-established European market-focused ETFs. Todd Sohn of Strategas Securities highlighted this in a note, while Nate Geraci, the President of The ETF Store has called it “the greatest launch in ETF history.”
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart noted: “IBIT’s growth is unprecedented. It’s the fastest ETF to reach most milestones, faster than any other ETF in any asset class,” he said. “At the current asset level and an expense ratio of 0.25%, IBIT can expect to earn about $112 million a year,” he added.
Notably, Larry Fink, the firm’s CEO, who once criticized Bitcoin as a tool for global money laundering has now shifted his view as he began to view Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
BlackRock’s entry into the spot-Bitcoin market, supported by its strong ETF track record, led to the approval and launch of the first US Bitcoin ETFs in January. Following this approval, BlackRock, along with Fidelity, VanEck, Grayscale, and others, launched the first cohort of US Bitcoin ETFs. Together, these 12 funds now manage approximately $107 billion in assets.
BlackRock’s Contribution To BTC Rally
IBIT now holds more assets than BlackRock’s gold ETF, the second-largest gold fund globally. Notably, Geraci believes that IBIT in 2025 could surpass SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold ETF, barring a collapse in the price of Bitcoin.
IBIT’s success also marked a significant turning point for Bitcoin, potentially boosting its legitimacy and acceptance in the financial market. It also played a significant role in pushing Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 for the first time, attracting both institutional investors and formerly skeptical individuals.
Remarkably, IBIT and other Bitcoin ETFs have contributed significantly to Bitcoin’s 118% price rally this year. Since its launch, IBIT has had only nine days of outflows and typically accounts for over 50% of the daily trading volume in the group.
All the Major Bitcoin Price Predictions Since Trump’s Election – Markets and Prices Bitcoin News
Donald Trump clinched the presidential nomination in November, creating a frenzy of bitcoin price predictions that range from a modest $130,000 to a mind-bending $49 million per coin. Top Minds Predict Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory A black swan event is an occurrence so rare and unpredictable that no one sees it coming, yet its impact is […]
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MicroStrategy Buys Another 2,138 Bitcoin, Adding to Holdings for an 8th Straight Week
Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this piece owns shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR)
MicroStrategy, the self-described bitcoin (BTC) development company, increased its holdings of the largest cryptocurrency for the eighth consecutive week.
The company, which already holds more bitcoin than any other publicly traded company, bought another 2,138 BTC for $209 million in the week ended Dec. 29, bringing its total holdings to 446,400 BTC.
Once again, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor teased the announcement on Sunday in a post on X. The average purchase price of bitcoin was $97,837, which raised the average purchase price to $62,428.
The purchase was funded through share sales under the company’s at-the-market (ATM) program, for which they have $6.88 billion left on the ATM program.
MicroStrategy joined the Nasdaq 100 last week and currently ranks 57 with an index weighting of 0.38%.
The share price is currently 40% below the record high it hit Nov. 21. It is down 3% in pre-market trading, taking it to around $320 per share.
Sky (MakerDAO) Hits New Highs in Fees and Revenue
December has been a breakthrough month for MakerDAO, with data from the decentralized finance (DeFi) analytics platform DeFiLlama showing it set new records in fees and revenues.
According to the data, MakerDAO reached a peak of $40.86 million in fees, a key metric of user activity, and $26.77 million in revenue, reflecting retained earnings, between December 1 and December 31.
A Historic Month for MakerDAO
2024 has also been the crypto lending protocol’s best year since its inception, making about $304 million in fees and over $174 million in revenue. At that time, the highest amount recorded for fees was in April, when the protocol received $32.62 million, while its best month in terms of turnover was November when it made $18.91 million.
However, December’s numbers beat both those figures by $8.24 million and $7.86 million, respectively, setting a new precedent for the platform.
Interestingly, MakerDAO also saw its highest single-day performance on December 9, bringing in $1.67 million in levies and $1.18 million in income. These earnings have been driven primarily by interest payments on loans made on the protocol’s DAI stablecoin, reflecting the increasing demand for its lending services.
In August, the platform announced it would rebrand to Sky after two years of development aimed at adding new functionalities and improving user interactions. It also introduced two new cryptocurrencies: USDS, a stablecoin that users could convert from their existing DAI holdings, and a new governance token named SKY.
USDS has also been launched on Solana as a DeFi-native stablecoin. The network has the second-largest decentralized finance ecosystem after Ethereum, with about $8.5 billion locked into its DeFi projects.
MKR’s Market Performance
Elsewhere, Maker’s native asset MKR experienced a less-than-impressive December. According to data from CoinGecko, the token lost 16.8% of its value over the last 30 days, with its worst performance coming in the previous two weeks, where it dipped by more than 21%.
In the last 24 hours, its price fluctuated between $1,488 and $1,547, finally settling at $1,522. The current price is 1.1% below its previous level from yesterday and remains more than 75% below its all-time high, recorded in May 2021. However, it still shows healthy market activity, with its latest one-day trading volume of $113.1 million helping it maintain a significant value with a market cap of $1.37 billion.
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Just In; Genius Group Adds $10M in Bitcoin As Part of Treasury Strategy
Genius Group Limited (NYSE American: GNS) has increased its Bitcoin Treasury by $10 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 319.4 BTC, valued at $30 million. The company made the announcement on December 30, 2024, as part of its “Bitcoin-first” strategy, which commits over 90% of its reserves to Bitcoin.
Genius Group Adds $10M in Bitcoin
Genius Group, which launched its new strategy on November 12, has already achieved 25% of its $120 million Bitcoin investment target within six weeks. The most recent $10 million investment brings the company’s total balance to 319.4 BTC bought at an average cost of $93,919 per coin despite the recent Bitcoin price dip.
Genius Group’s CEO, Roger Hamilton, noted that the company is happy with the performance of the expansion of its Bitcoin Treasury and it is exceeding the targets set for it.
“We are exploring several ways to enhance shareholder value and at the same time strengthen our Bitcoin Treasury,” Hamilton said.
To finance BTC purchases, the company utilized its cash balance, ATM sales, and a $10 million loan from Arch Lending, a crypto-backed lending firm.
BTC Yield and Treasury Performance Metrics
At the same time, Genius Group has adopted BTC Yield as a performance metric that reflects the increase in its Bitcoin holdings compared to the firm’s shares. In the company’s Q4 2024 financial report, the company recorded a BTC Yield of 1,649% which is an indication of a rise in the number of BTC per share. However, the company stated that BTC Yield is not a GAAP measure but rather a tool to help investors understand its approach to Bitcoin investing.
According to the company’s report, as of December 29, it held bitcoins worth $30.4 million with the price of BTC at $95,060. Genius Group has a market capitalization of $40.6 million, with 63.0 million shares issued, which gives it a BTC/Price ratio of 0.75. CFO Gaurav Dama pointed out that the current market capitalization does not adequately incorporate the firm’s Bitcoin holdings.
“We do think that our Bitcoin performance is being underestimated when compared to other companies in our market.”
Besides the treasury investments, Genius Group is also concentrating on BTC education. The company aims to start the Genius BTC Academy and Blockchain Academy in January 2025, as a specialized training and certification institution. At the same time, Genius Group also bought XD Academy, which is a blockchain education platform in order to enhance the faculty and courses offered.
Bitcoin Accumulation Increases by Major Firms
Genius Group’s latest acquisition is in line with other corporate Bitcoin adoption in the market. Recently, MicroStrategy, one of the biggest BTC investors, bought an additional 2,138 BTC for $209 million at an average of $97,837 per BTC. The purchase added to its existing BTC holdings to reach 446,400 BTC, or about $42.4 billion in value.
Likewise, Tether added Bitcoin reserves after a nine-month break, with 7,629 BTC worth $705.25 million. Tether now holds 82,983 Bitcoins in its reserves, which is worth $7.68 billion at the moment.
These developments, as a result, underscore the growing appeal of Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset amid continued price volatility. Amid these announcements, Bitcoin price has experienced a slight decline, with its price recently dropping 1.70% to $91,917. However, market analysts, including Matrixport, anticipate a potential breakout in early 2025.
Despite the recent dip, Genius Group, along with companies like MicroStrategy and Tether, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term value and strategic role in corporate financial planning.
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Kelvin Munene Murithi
Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.