Academic Paper Reveals Consistent Pattern in Weekly Bitcoin Price Prediction
Andrey Ignatenko, a crypto trader and expert in data analysis, in collaboration with Larysa Dokiienko, a PhD holder in Economics, discovered a correlation between the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the maximum price of Bitcoin on a weekly timeframe.
The duo published an Academic paper in the journal “Investments: Practice and Experience” which is included in the list of scientific professional publications of Ukraine.
The Journal focuses on economics and public administration and is managed by the order of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine.
The academic paper titled “ Practical Use of the Maximum Price of Bitcoin Dynamics And The MACD Histogram To Formulate Trader’s Forecasts” discusses the correlation between the MACD histogram and how high or low the Bitcoin price gets on a weekly time frame. The full article can be read as a free PDF on the journal’s website.
This study reveals a slightly consistent pattern that could aid crypto traders in accurately predicting Bitcoin price on a short to medium-term basis.
The paper was published on Jan 8 2025 after weeks of rigorous review.
Problem Statement
Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, remains the mainstay for most crypto traders looking to turn a profit. Bitcoin, unfortunately, like all crypto assets is volatile and unpredictable making trading on its price action a roller coaster.
Analysts in the past and present have tried to zero in on a predictable behavior that can make trading in Bitcoin a lot more sustainable and consistently profitable.
The Academic paper by Ignatenko and Dokiienko is one of such attempts seeking to nail a consistent pattern in Bitcoin Price action making trading a lot more profitable.
Correlation between MACD Histogram and Bitcoin Price
The study by the duo revealed that in 62.84% of cases, a trader can expect an increase in the maximum price of bitcoin this week if the MACD histogram showed an increase in the previous week, or a decrease in the maximum price of bitcoin this week if the MACD histogram showed a decrease in the previous week.
In a deeper context, A trader can expect a continuation of the overall medium-term trend in the bitcoin market if the MACD histogram series is below average and the end of the trend if the MACD histogram series is above average.
For the rising series of the MACD histogram, the probability of the trend ending is 60.53% (approximately 5 weeks), and for the falling series — 64.86% (approximately 4 weeks).
A trader can expect that the maximum price of bitcoin will continue its direction of movement in the second week in 52.17% of cases and will end this movement after the 4th week with a probability of 90.68%.
The sequence between the two indicators serves as a building block for accurately predicting Bitcoin Price on a short and medium-term basis.
Math Bitcoin Price Prediction
Besides the Academic paper, Andrey Ignatenko has published a book on Bitcoin price prediction using mathematical models. The book attempts to predict the Bitcoin price through the years 2030, 2040, 2050, and beyond.A second edition of this book is being prepared that will look at data for the full year 2024.
The price of the book will be reduced. You can read news about this in the author’s Facebook group, where he makes his free weekly bitcoin price predictions, as well as LTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, and BNB forecasts.
His predictions are based on methods described in his research, along with those of other scientists, and the author emphasizes probabilities rather than accuracy. In future academic papers, the author is going to refine his methodology and make the predictions even more reliable, although a probability of 70-80% is already quite impressive.
